Every Friday I’m posting the latest enrollment figures for the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) here at Eclectablog. Full details can be viewed daily at ACASignups.net.
OK, after the insanity of the past few days in terms of both the ever-shifting January enrollment deadline (changing from 12/15 to 12/23 and then 12/24 Federally; ranging from 12/23 to 12/24 to 12/27 to, amazingly, 12/31 for some of the State exchanges) as well as on a personal level (Forbes, the Washington Post and NY Magazine (simple text link) are now citing ACASignups.net as a trusted source), actual updates to the enrollment tally have actually been kind of quiet the past day or so.
The numbers were spiking rapidly in the days leading up to Christmas Eve. How rapidly? Try at least half a million people in the past week. More on that below.
Given the spike leading up to the January 1st coverage deadline, it’s a bit odd to see such a dearth of new data since then. HOWEVER, there have been 3 updates since then which may seem pretty minor on the surface…but which speak volumes about what’s actually happening nationally.
First up is Nevada. Previously, the most up-to-date private enrollment figure was 6,600 people as of 12/11. Yesterday, however, the state exchange tweeted that this number had jumped to 12,740 as of midnight on 12/23. Thanks to sulthernao for the find.
Yes, that’s a 93% jump in 12 days, which is impressive, but that’s not the number I want you to notice. The more important part is that this is the only state besides Washington which has also answered the question “How many have PAID?” This is important mainly because that’s the new GOP talking point that’s been making the rounds. The answer? 6,219.
So, in addition to Washington, where 48% of the 135,000 enrollees have already paid their first month’s premium, we now know that 49% of Nevadan enrollees have as well.
These two states represent about 8% of the total enrollees to date nationwide, so it sounds like “around 48%” is a pretty good answer to an otherwise meaningless question. Extrapolated nationally, that comes to around 875,000 private plan enrollees of the 1.83 million total.
Next up is West Virginia, where dKos member duhban provided their newest number: Over 2,200 private enrollments as of 12/22, up from 1,237 on 12/12. That’s a 78% jump in 10 days. The 1,237 figure itself was a 60% increase over the 11/30 number, FWIW.
Finally comes an even smaller, but *more* important number: South Dakota.
This one comes to us courtesy of dKos member puzzld, and is significant because 1) It’s a deep red state which 2) didn’t expand Medicaid and 3) is run through the Federal HC.gov exchange, so the number here should be rather telling.
According to the Argus Leader, South Dakota has gone from 372 people enrolled in private plans as of 11/30 to at least 2,501 by 12/23.
Now, obviously SD may not be representative of every state given the tiny numbers at play, but that’s still a 6.7x increase in private enrollments.
Much of this is already accounted for in the 750,000 “unspecified” figure on the spreadsheet (which runs through 12/22), but it’s still worth keeping in mind.
With all of that in mind, here’s the latest tally:
Private Enrollments: 1.83 million people
Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion: 4.01 million people
Combined Total: 5.84 million people
Note that this doesn’t include roughly 3.1 million young adults (18-26) (as of June 2012, up from 2.5 million in June 2011) who are now covered via their parents healthcare plan thanks to the ACA.
